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Dollar sags as slower U.S. inflation boosts rate cut expectations
  + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar skidded to multi-month lows on Thursday after U.S. core inflation hit its slowest in three years and retail sales turned flat, which pulled forward expectations for rate cuts in the world's biggest economy. The dollar skidded to multi-month lows on Thursday after U.S. core inflation hit its slowest in three years and retail sales turned flat, which pulled forward expectations for rate cuts in the world's biggest economy. Stocks and other risk-sensitive assets such as the Australian dollar led gains in the wake of the data release. The New Zealand dollar hit a two-month high at $0.6131. Softer-than-expected retail sales figures, which were flat last month instead of the 0.4% gain that economists had forecast, reinforced the newfound confidence in rate cuts.
Persons: Sterling, Bart Wakabayashi, China's, Bitcoin Organizations: Australian, New Zealand, U.S, State, European Central Bank Locations: Asia, Tokyo, Treasuries
Gold prices inched up on Thursday following a sharp rise in the last session as the dollar and bond yields weakened on the increasing likelihood of rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve as early as September. Spot gold rose 0.1% at $2,388.10 per ounce, as of 0255 GMT, after gaining more than 1% to its highest since April 19 on Wednesday. "Following the April consumer price index data, the odds for a potential September rate cut have firmed, which suits the gold price from a yield perspective," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. However, a potential bounce in the dollar or treasury yields could be the biggest hurdle for gold price in the remainder of the week." Bullion is known as an inflation hedge, but higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Persons: Tim Waterer, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell's Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasury, KCM, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank Locations: .
Read previewReal estate mogul Frank McCourt is the latest person to raise his hand to try to acquire TikTok's US business. Related stories"We thought this was a really fantastic opportunity to accelerate the creation of an alternative internet," McCourt told the Associated Press. McCourt wants to change TikTok's basic business to an open-source model that allows users and creators more control over their data. McCourt told the New York Times that he doesn't want the algorithm. "We doubt very much that China would sell TikTok with the algorithm," McCourt told the Times.
Persons: , Frank McCourt, McCourt, Kirkland, Ellis, TikTok, Forbes, Tim Berners, Lee, TikTok . McCourt, Eric Schmidt, Steven Mnuchin, he's Organizations: Service, Guggenheim Securities, Business, Associated Press, Liberty, Los Angeles Dodgers, Big Tech, New York Times, Times Locations: China
Related storiesA new report from Reuters released Wednesday raised more questions about the hours Lukenas may have been logging leading up to his untimely death. Walters said Lukenas told him he was putting in more than 100 hours a week at Bank of America. "He made a comment saying like, 'Hey, I'll trade hours of sleep for a 10% (pay) cut,'" Walters told Reuters. Walters said he told Lukenas that was excessive, even by Wall Street's standards. Prior to Lukenas' death, he had been participating on deal work related to UMB's $2 billion all-stock acquisition of Heartland Financial USA — a transaction that was announced in late April.
Persons: , Wall, Leo Lukenas III, Lukenas, Douglas Walters, Walters, GrayFox Organizations: Service, of America, Army, Bank of America, Business, Reuters, New, Office, GrayFox, BI, Heartland Financial, Vets Locations: New York
Citi recently named one under-the-radar company to buy on a "data and AI opportunity." The bank pointed out that ExlService has the talent to meet the demand too, with its more than 13,000 AI, generative AI, data and digital "experts." "EXLS also provided medium-term targets (2024-25) of double digit revenue growth, incremental margin improvement, and faster-than-revenue EPS growth," Citi analysts wrote. The current demand pipeline for its data and AI services stand at $2 billion, according to Citi. The bank gave the stock a buy rating and a price target of $37, or potential upside of 22%.
Persons: ExlService Organizations: Citi, ExlService Holdings
Martin Gruenberg is still the leader of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, an agency that supervises U.S. banks, but after a bipartisan grilling on Wednesday by members of a House committee overseeing bank regulators, he appeared to be hanging on by a thread. Democrats expressed dismay over his responses to the crisis at his agency, after a scathing report of a culture of widespread sexual harassment and discrimination. One congresswoman appeared to call for him to resign, as Republicans have been doing for months. “Personally, I do not have confidence that you can continue to lead in this role,” Representative Ayanna S. Pressley, Democrat of Massachusetts, told Mr. Gruenberg during an exchange. (Two other federal bank regulators, the acting comptroller of the currency, Michael Hsu, and the Federal Reserve vice chair, Michael Barr, also offered testimony on bank regulatory matters, but much of the committee’s focus was on the F.D.I.C.)
Persons: Martin Gruenberg, Ayanna S, Pressley, Gruenberg, , Michael Hsu, Michael Barr Organizations: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Reserve Locations: Massachusetts
But economists cautioned that one month of encouraging data was far from enough to set those worries to rest. Both overall and core prices rose 0.3 percent from the previous month, down from 0.4 percent in February and March. The encouraging inflation report on Wednesday is unlikely to change those expectations. The report is also likely to be met with relief at the White House after what has been a rough recent run of inflation data for President Biden. Gasoline prices rose a seasonally adjusted 2.8 percent in April from March.
Persons: , , Stephen Stanley, there’s, Sarah House, Biden, Jerome H, Powell, we’re, Blerina Uruci, Rowe Price, Jeanna Smialek, Jim Tankersley Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Santander, White, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed Locations: Wells Fargo, Amsterdam, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
'Conviction list' stocks with big upside Investors still looking for quality names with more upside may want to consider names in Goldman's conviction lists — directors' cut. CNBC Pro scoured Goldman's May conviction lists for stocks with further upside of 50% or more, based on the bank's price targets. Goldman gave it a price target of $35, implying 107% upside. Goldman gave it a price target of 37 euros ($40), implying 64% upside. The bank gave the stock a price target of 380,000 Korean won ($277), or potential upside of 94%.
Persons: Stocks, Goldman Sachs, Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman, Neste, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Dow Jones, U.S . Federal, Fed, CNBC, Europe's, Energy, Korean Locations: 1Q24, United States, Europe, Asia, Korean
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The Nasdaq rose to a record close, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 126 points. Meme craze coolsShares of GameStop and AMC rose on Tuesday, extending Monday's gains after "Roaring Kitty" made a reappearance. Shares, however, gave up some of their earlier gains, suggesting enthusiasm for the so-called meme stocks was fading. Powell: Inflation falling slowlyFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation was not slowing as quickly as anticipated, requiring the central bank to maintain its current interest rates for longer.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Alibaba, Powell, CNBC's Yun Li Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Treasury, GameStop, AMC, Biden, AMC Entertainment Locations: Hangzhou, New York, China, Amsterdam
New York CNN —Some progressives have frequently blamed corporate greed for fueling the high cost of living that Americans are fed up with. That’s corporate greed. That’s corporate greed. Although the paper did not directly mention corporate greed, shrinkflation or Biden, the research undercuts the argument that greedflation drove the early inflation. That report found corporate profits were to blame for 34% of inflation since the start of Covid-19.
Persons: Sen, Elizabeth Warren, ” Warren, “ That’s, It’s, , , Joe Biden, ” Biden, CNN’s Erin Burnett, Biden, – we’re, shrinkflation, greedflation, Jeremy Edwards, ” Edwards, , , Greg Valliere, ” Valliere, Jerome Powell, Caroline Ciccone, profiteer Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Fed, SF Fed, , CNN, White, AGF Investments, Federal Reserve, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Locations: New York, America, Kansas
Dollar droops to one-month low vs euro before key CPI test
  + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
In this photo illustration, the new £10 note is seen alongside euro notes and U.S. dollar bills on Oct. 13, 2017 in Bath, England. The euro edged up 0.03% to $1.0823 in Asian trading hours, and earlier rose to $1.0828 for the first time since April 10. The dollar edged back 0.12% to 156.245 yen on Wednesday, but had pushed as high as 156.80 overnight. The dollar dropped 0.24% to 7.2232 yuan in offshore trading, after reaching the highest since May 1 at 7.2460 overnight. The New Zealand dollar climbed 0.37% to $0.6062, and earlier touched $0.6064 for the first time since April 10.
Persons: Alan Ruskin, Jerome Powell, Tony Sycamore, Joe Biden's Organizations: Reserve, U.S, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Bank of Japan, CPI, IG, Australian, New Zealand Locations: Bath, England, U.S, China
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading: GameStop , AMC Entertainment — The so-called meme stocks retreated significantly after a two-day rally . GameStop declined about 30%, while AMC dropped 20% as the trading frenzy seemed to fade. The sell-off in AMC shares also came after the company announced a debt-for-equity swap. Before Wednesday, GameStop and AMC were up 179% and 135% this week, respectively. According to the firm, shares could benefit from Chinese government stimulus policy and Nio's latest battery as a service, or BaaS, strategy, which could drive sales, said the bank.
Persons: Max, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Glenn Murphy, Cowen, Yun Li, Pia Singh, Michelle Fox, Alex Harring, Jesse Pound Organizations: GameStop, AMC Entertainment, AMC, Boeing, Justice Department, Dell Technologies, JPMorgan, Tesla, Management, New York Community Bancorp, Petco, Wellness Locations: Nio
Loan loss reserves have perked back up in recent quarters and are at roughly 1.75% of loans outstanding, according to MRB Partners. If the economy only modestly slows, as many economists expect, new loan loss reserves could be smaller in the future. This situation comes as bank earnings were generally better than expected for the first quarter. Lauren Goodwin, chief market strategist and economist at New York Life Investments, agreed that a potential slowing or reversal of loan loss reserves would be positive for bank earnings but said she is cautious about bank profitability more broadly. To be sure, banks may need to increase their loan loss reserves if the economic outlook gets worse.
Persons: Banks, Bob Elliott, Salvatore Ruscitti, Ruscitti, Lauren Goodwin, Goodwin, they're, Unlimited's Elliott Organizations: MRB Partners, Funds, Bank, P Bank ETF, New York Life Investments Locations: Bridgewater, MRB
Six Flags stock has ticked up nearly 7% in 2024. The analyst reiterated an overweight rating on the stock as well as a $1,200 per share price target, implying more than 31% upside from Tuesday's close. The analyst has a buy rating on Nvidia with a $1,150 per share price target, or about 26% upside ahead. He also raised his price target on U.S.-listed shares to $5.40 per share from $4.80, though the new forecast calls for a 6% decline over the next year. NIO YTD mountain NIO YTD Lai had downgraded Nio to underweight in February due to slowing sales momentum.
Persons: Chris Woronka, Woronka, Brian Evans, John Vinh doesn't, NVDA, Vinh, Timothy Arcuri, Arcuri, — Brian Evans, Goldman Sachs, Alphabet's, Eric Sheridan, Sheridan, Oppenheimer, Jason Helfstein, GOOG, Helfstein, Brent Thill, Jefferies, Nick Lai, YTD Lai, Fred Imbert, ~$ ( ~$) Organizations: CNBC, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank downgrades, Flags Entertainment, Deutsche Bank, Fair, Nvidia, Blackwell, UBS, Google, Gemini
Japan’s economy contracts in first quarter
  + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Tokyo Reuters —Japan’s economy contracted in the first quarter, squeezed by weaker consumption and external demand and throwing a fresh challenge to policymakers as the central bank looks to lift interest rates away from near-zero levels. The reading translates into a quarterly contraction of 0.5%, versus a 0.4% decline expected by economists. “Japan’s economy hit the bottom in the first quarter,” said Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief market economist at SMBC Nikko Securities. “The economy will certainly rebound this quarter thanks to rising wages although uncertainty remains on service consumption.”Capital spending, a key driver of private demand, fell 0.8% in the first quarter, versus an expected decline of 0.7%, despite hefty corporate earnings. External demand, or exports minus imports, knocked 0.3 of a percentage point off first quarter GDP estimates.
Persons: Downwardly, , Yoshimasa Maruyama Organizations: Tokyo Reuters, Nikko Securities, , Daihatsu, Bank of Japan Locations: Tokyo, , Noto, Toyota’s
In today's big story, we're looking at Google's big event that's pitching all the ways AI agents can make our lives easier . Google I/O, the tech giant's biggest developer conference, was heavy on the rise of so-called AI agents , writes Business Insider's Hugh Langley, who was there in person. AdvertisementGoogle's faithful, old search engine got a noticeable facelift with the help of AI , writes BI's Geoff Weiss. Steven Puetzer/Getty, Tyler Le/BIThe stakes for Google are high, as nailing AI agents opens up a massive business opportunity. For AI agents to be so intuitive, they'll need access to seemingly every aspect of our lives.
Persons: , Tyler Le, you've, OpenAI's ChatGPT, Hugh Langley, Sundar Pichai, Geoff Weiss, Hugh, Alistair Barr, Gregory Wayne, Steven Puetzer, hasn't, Alistair, Demis Hassabis, Minchillo, Keith Gill, Naz Vahid, Andy Sieg's, Noah Berger, Jia Feng, Tingting Ji, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, BI's Peter Kafka, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Google, Astra, GameStop, AMC Entertainment, JPMorgan, Citi, Amazon Web Services, Walmart, UPS, Nielsen, Cisco Systems, Warner Bros, Discovery Locations: New York, Dublin, London
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Meme craze coolsShares of GameStop and AMC rose on Tuesday, extending Monday's gains after "Roaring Kitty" made a reappearance. Shares, however, gave up some of their earlier gains, suggesting enthusiasm for the so-called meme stocks was fading. Powell: Inflation falling slowlyFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation was not slowing as quickly as anticipated, requiring the central bank to maintain its current interest rates for longer.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Australia's, CNBC's Yun Li Organizations: Google Gemini, CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Treasury, GameStop, AMC, Biden, Sony, China's CSI, AMC Entertainment Locations: Brussels, Belgium, China, Amsterdam, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, South Korea
London CNN —Taylor Swift’s smash-hit “Eras Tour” is set to boost spending in the United Kingdom by nearly $1 billion, according to estimates by Barclays. The concerts sold out within minutes of tickets going on sale, with fans spending £206 ($260) on average on a single ticket, Barclays said. While the price tag may seem hefty, it’s much less than many Americans will pay to see the “Eras Tour” back home. “For ‘Eras Tour’ ticketholders, every pound they spend is an investment in the memories they’ll create,” he added. The European leg of the “Eras Tour” includes concerts in Sweden, Portugal, Spain, France, Ireland, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Italy, Germany, Poland and Austria this year.
Persons: London CNN — Taylor Swift’s, Swift, Peter Brooks, Taylor Swift, Elvis, Beatlemania, ” Brooks, That’s “ Organizations: London CNN, Barclays, Barclays ’, Locations: United Kingdom, United States, England, Wales, Scotland, Europe, Sweden, Portugal, Spain, France, Ireland, Netherlands, Switzerland, Italy, Germany, Poland, Austria
The National Bureau of Statistics is due to release data on retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment for April on Friday. Some of the weakness speaks to genuine sluggish demand in China at present. The firm expects this week's economic data releases to show a "softening in economic momentum," affirming its forecasts for the central bank to cut rates by the end of June. "Some of the weakness speaks to genuine sluggish demand in China at present," said Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs' China chief economist, in a note Sunday. Businesses' loan demand fallsNew bank loans to businesses and government organizations dropped sharply in April from March, as did new loans to households, according to official data accessed through Wind Information.
Persons: Hui Shan Goldman Sachs, Louise Loo, Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan, Goldman, RRR, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: Visual China, Getty, BEIJING, National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Finance, Oxford Economics, People's Bank of, Information, Clocktower, CNBC Locations: Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province, China, , Beijing, People's Bank of China
Germany's Commerzbank said on Wednesday that net profit rose 29% in the first quarter, its strongest quarterly profit in a decade, and it raised its outlook for net interest income for the full year. Net profit of 747 million euros ($808.25 million) in the quarter compares with a profit of 580 million euros a year earlier. Analysts had on average expected profit of 652 million euros, according to an April consensus forecast published by Commerzbank. Net interest income rose 9.2% in the first quarter to 2.126 billion euros, better than expectations for 2.096 billion euros. The bank raised its full-year forecast for net interest income to 8.1 billion euros from 7.9 billion euros previously.
Persons: Germany's Commerzbank, Commerzbank Locations: Frankfurt
AMC Entertainment , GameStop — AMC and GameStop shares posted fell in early morning trading as momentum fizzled from the meme stock craze , which was reignited Monday by a social media reappearance from "Roaring Kitty." GameStop shares slid 6%. Boeing — The airplane manufacturer's shares slid 1.1% after the Justice Department said Boeing violated a 2021 settlement related to its two fatal 737 Max crashes, exposing the company to potential U.S. prosecution. SunPower — The solar stock dropped 22.3%, giving back some of its 59% surge from the prior session. On Wednesday, however, Wolfe Research downgraded the stock underperform from peer perform, noting SunPower the "most extreme example of the meme stock resurgence" within clean technology names.
Persons: Lien, Max, Nio, Dell, Morgan Stanley, Wolfe, , Alex Harring, Fred Imbert, Jesse Pound Organizations: AMC Entertainment, GameStop, AMC, Boeing, Justice Department, JPMorgan, White House, Wolfe Research Locations: China
Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Wednesday: UBS reiterates Nvidia as buy UBS said it's standing by its buy rating heading into Nvidia earnings next week. Wells Fargo names Natera a top pick Wells said the fertilizer company is a new top pick at the firm. Morgan Stanley resumes Exxon as overweight Morgan Stanley resumed coverage of the stock and says it has "attractive growth at a compelling valuation." Morgan Stanley reiterates Palo Alto as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's bullish on shares of Palo Alto heading into earnings next week. Morgan Stanley names Dell a top pick Morga Stanley raised its price target on the stock and says it remains a best idea.
Persons: it's, Cantor Fitzgerald, Tesla, Canto, Tesla's, Wells, CTVA, KeyBanc, TD Cowen, Janus Henderson, Morgan Stanley, Palo, Bernstein, Mills, Campbell, underperform Bernstein, Wolfe, SunPower, Dell, Morga Stanley, Stephens, Truist, Oppenheimer, Will, DA Davidson Organizations: UBS, Nvidia, " Bank of America, Bank of America, Alphabet's, Google, JPMorgan, China, Deutsche Bank downgrades, Deutsche, Fair, Six, Sciences, NTR, Netflix, Energy, Palo Alto, Palo, Food, Tech, Barclays, General Motors, Holdings, ALC, Apple, Apple's Worldwide Developer's Conference, Will Apple, Walmart, D.A Locations: OW, Palo Alto, U.S
During the pandemic, mortgage rates reached historic lows. HELOC rates have generally remained between 8.16% and 8.59% this year, depending on the term length of the loan. Check out our current HELOC rates page to see the latest rates. To find out the maximum amount you could borrow with a HELOC, multiply your home's current value by your HELOC lender's maximum CLTV. For example, Boyd says that some HELOC lenders can take 50 days or more to close.
Persons: HELOCs, you'll, Adam Boyd, Boyd, You'll Organizations: Bank, Citizens Locations: U.S
Most non-retired adults have some type of retirement savings, but only 36% think their savings are on track. New research from economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York finds that this retirement savings deficit hasn’t made a dent in when Americans plan to exit, or partially exit, the workforce. “The pandemic-induced change in retirement expectations may continue to affect the labor market in years to come,” they wrote. Yes, but: This is a survey of expectations, researchers at the New York Fed are quick to point out. Just because Americans say they plan to shift to part-time work or retire early, it doesn’t mean that they’ll be able to.
Persons: Felix Aidala, Gizem Kosar, Wilbert van der, , They’re, Alicia Wallace, delinquencies, Joelle, CNN’s Parija, Donna Morris, Morris, ” Morris Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Census, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Social Security, New, Survey, SCE, triannual, Social, Social Security Agency, Lawmakers, New York Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of New, , Public Policy Research, Credit, Walmart, CNN, San Francisco Bay Area Locations: New York, United States, York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bentonville , Arkansas, Walmart’s Dallas, Atlanta, Toronto, Bentonville, San Francisco Bay, Hoboken , New Jersey
We're selling 100 shares of Morgan Stanley at roughly $100.56 each. Following Wednesday's trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 1,150 shares of MS, decreasing its weighting in the portfolio to 3.62% from 3.93%. Trying to anticipate what the Oscillator will do next is difficult, but we can only imagine the market will be even more overbought after Wednesday's gains. We'll realize a gain of 12% on Wednesday's Morgan Stanley trim on stock purchased in July 2021. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Overbought doesn't, Wednesday's Morgan Stanley, Jim Cramer Organizations: Games Global, CNBC
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